The cryosphere of the Himalaya–Karakoram is rapidly retreating under climate change, leading to widespread formation and expansion of glacial lakes and increasing the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). To date, more than 388 GLOF events have been documented in the region, primarily from moraine- and ice-dammed lakes, with the highest frequency reported in the Karakoram, followed by the Central and Eastern Himalaya. Ice avalanches and extreme precipitation are the most common triggers. Growing exposure of settlements and infrastructure amplifies impacts, highlighting the need to integrate physical science with social vulnerability, preparedness, and adaptation strategies.
Global warming has heightened environmental concerns globally, with the accelerated melting of the Himalayan cryosphere emerging as one of the most critical challenges in the region. The geologically young and fragile Himalayas have experienced warming rates of 0.15 °C to 0.60 °C per decade, far exceeding the global average of 0.74 °C per century. Covering ~40,800 km2 of glaciers (~22,800 km2 in the Himalayas and ~18,000 km2 in the Karakoram), the region is witnessing unprecedented glacial recession due to this warming trend. Projections under various RCPs indicate a temperature rise of 2.5 °C to 5 °C by the century’s end, particularly in high-altitude zones.
Sources:
NPJ Natural Hazards
https://www.nature.com/articles/s44264-025-00108-7 .
Provided by the IKCEST Disaster Risk Reduction Knowledge Service System
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