Journal
Geography and Natural Resources
Paper Keyword
flood,rain precipitation,cluster analysis,statistical characteristics,Kritskii-Menkel’ distribution,synoptic situation
Abstract
We investigated the precipitation characteristics for the summer period of 2013 on the basis of analyzing the daily precipitation amounts according to observational data from the Russian and Chinese meteostations on the territory of the Amur river basin. An analysis is made of the synchronism in the fluctuations of long-term series of precipitation amounts for two summer months (July and August) by using a modified algorithm for a classification of the fields of hydrometeorological characteristics, such as cluster analysis. The study revealed a poor correlation of precipitation amounts in different parts of the basin. We analyzed the interannual fluctuations in absolute maxima of the consecutive precipitation amounts for different periods of time (from 1 to 30 days). It is shown that precipitation over the summer period of 2013 that caused a disastrous flood in the lower reaches of the Amur were extreme primarily as regards the territory encompassed and the flood duration, which was due to a combination of synoptic processes of a different genesis. It was found that the precipitation amounts for periods shorter than 19 days in 2013 were not extreme in terms of intensity. A comparison was made with the year 1984 when there also occurred a flood on the Amur but not as violent. Parameters of the probability curves for 2013 and 1984 are presented for long-term series of maximum precipitation amounts for the summation period of 7 and 30 days. It is concluded that for calculating the maximum possible precipitation amounts which are necessary for assessing the maximum possible floods, it is appropriate to consider synoptic situations with long-lasting precipitation rather than separate short-lasting storm rains.
