Author
LIU Jiyao , Chunxil, LIANG Wenjunl, SONG Jie, BAI Xuemeil, Siqinbilige
Journal
Journal of Inner Mongolia Normal University
Paper Keyword
drought; standard precipitation index; precipitation; Inner Mongolia; linear regression
Abstract
In order to monitor the drought disaster variation in Inner Mongolia, the fundamental characteristics and temporalspatial distribution of the drought disaster were analyzed using methods of linearregression and Standardized Precipitation Index based on climate data from 1961 to 2013. The results oftrend analysis showed that annual precipitation in research area had a downward trend with a rate of0.0395 mm/a,and the pattern of a decrease trend in the whole area and an increase trend in locality wassignificant spatially. In addition, there were obvious differences between every seasonal precipitation, an upward trend over the total area was showed in spring and winter , autumn with a decrease increase situa- -tion from west to east ,and summer decreased faster than annual precipitation with a rate of 0.32 mm/a.In spatial pattern, the most significant downward trend occurred in semi arid region, which is sensitive toclimate change. The drought volatility and intensity enhance was analyzed by SPI12, with the range ofinfluence enlarging and moving to east. While the SPI3 was more sensitive to short period rainfall, indicar -ting that increasing intensity of drought resulted in the ecoenvironment degeneration, where semi- aridregion as seasonal drought high incidence area was extremely sensitive to climate changes, which meansthat SPI was a good monitor to the area owning larger precipitation changing rate. Compared with precipitation anomaly and precipitation Z index ,SPI was more perceptual and accurate in quantify and procrastination effect descriptions, which could evaluate the area drought condition reliably.
